Winners and Losers of Arbitration....

It's a rarity that a free agent player accepts arbitration, usually if a player wants to stay that bad an extension is worked out prior to Monday nights deadline. There have been a few cases where the team offers arbitration, hoping for the draft pick but the player wants to stay ( usually for personal reasons) and a contract wasn't offered, so they accept arbitration. There have also been a few players who had bad years or the market is weak for their position, so they decide to accept arbitration and try free agency in another year....

Teams are left trying to determine whether they should offer arbitration to a player, there are a number of things to consider in the decision. If a team wants a player back but couldn't agree on a contract then offering arbitration insures them at least compensation and makes the player less appealing to other teams. But then there's the player who was good to the team and might want to just move on, declining arbitration will make it easier for him to find another team.

Then there are the tricky decisions, sometimes a team strictly wants the pick but has to determine whether the player could actually accept and then if he does, they're stuck with a player who isn't in their plans.

This year with the economic situation I believe there's a great chance of players accepting arbitration then in past years...

This post really doesn't pertain to Type B players, the only impact they have is on their former team and whether they want them back or not. Type B's generally might not do better in free agency, are on the down turn of their careers or coming off bad years and have a greater chance of accepting arbitration. For new teams it's just a delay in waiting for the player to decline or accept arbitration, as a sandwich pick doesn't come from the signing team.

Type A's are the winners and losers in arbitration offers, when the former team offers them arbitration they become less appealing on the free agent market because of the lost draft pick. So when a player doesn't receive arbitration that player is much more appealing, especially compared to those offered arbitration...

For example; I believe the Mets will be willing to sign one Type A free agent. More then likely Omar will swap Oliver Perez's compensation pick for either K-Rod or Fuentes. I will be very surprised if another Type A ( who was offered) being signed because of the Mets using the picks to rebuild the system. If one is signed it would be a very good contract in the Mets terms, a steal so to speak to justify the the loss of a pick. For Example; Manny on a two year deal, Hudson at 6-8M per year, Sheets on an incentive laden contract. After the closer there simply doesn't appear to be a must have player who the Mets couldn't find a player to fill that role who wouldn't cost a pick.

I still don't think the Mets will be deterred from signing K-Rod or Fuentes but with Wood not being offered arbitration he immediately becomes more appealing. I still don't like Hoffman (not offered) but I could see them saying the same thing.

As far as relievers I think you can take Juan Cruz and Darrin Oliver off the wish list, reports indicating the Mets weren't sold on Cruz to begin with and there's no way I see them giving up a pick for a reliever. But Bob Howry, Russ Springer, Jason Isringhausen and Doug Brocail just went to the top of the list.

I don't think the Mets will be in on any of the type A starters who were offered, they have a 1-2 with Santana and Pelfrey, Maine is either a 3-4 so they need at best a #3 which isn't worth a pick. I think Burnett, Perez, Lowe, Sabathia and Sheets will be signing elsewhere and if one of them does drop to the Mets this might be the only chance of them giving up another pick. Sheets is the most intriguing to me but he's such an injury risk, is he worth the contract and the lost pick. But I think they'll look into the next group of starters, like I mentioned last night a Randy Wolf type.

As far as the position players Teixeira and Ramirez I don't think are on their list. Hudson and Cabrera could have just dropped off the list with the offer of arbitration. I'm not sure where this leaves Ibanez, the Mets seem very interested but will they give a 37 y/o a three year deal and give up a pick. Three very appealing offensive players weren't offered arbitration; Burrell, Dunn and Abreu..