Surprise Met - Ambiorix Burgos

John Delcos of the LoHud Mets Blog posted a question two weeks ago titled "Surprise Met".

Who’s your surprise Met of the year?
It could be a guy who comes out of nowhere and plays big. Or a reclamation project. It could even be a high-profile name that has a miserable year.

Later that day Matt at Metsblog pick up on the story and had the following comments…

....great, great question, john…i always ask these of minor-league experts about the team’s youngest players, but never think to apply it to the majors…

So far, the comments section at his blog has returned all sorts of names, from Ambiorix Burgos to Phil Humber to Ben Johnson.

Clearly this is a very popular off-season question and is making the rounds. On 1/25/07 "Mike and The Mad Dog" of WFAN 660AM in NY, had Mets GM Omar Minaya on the show as a guest. One of the shows hosts, "Mike" Francesa asked "Omar is there one youngster that the Mets fan should keep his eye on ", Omar's response was "Ambiorix Burgos". His response was so definitive that Chris "Mad Dog" Russo said "Boy your high(on this guy), You love this guy". Go to WFAN Audio Archives to hear the entire interview. Matt at Metsblog reviewed the radio interview and had the following comments.

…whether there is one young player on the Mets, who the team’s fans should keep their eye on, who could be a key to 2007…

“It would probably have to be in the pitching front. We did get a kid called Ambiorix Burgos, he’s 22 years old. We have reports that he throws somewhere between 96-and 98–mph hour. You think about 22–years-old, he’s got a plus arm, the velocity, the split, I get excited about those kind of guys. He’s a young guy, for me, who has great potential. I think he has a chance to make this team.

After hearing all the buzz surrounding Burgos I decided to take a closer look at him.

Ambiorix Burgos was traded to the NY Mets from the Kansas City Royals on 12/6/06, in return the Royals received starting RHP Brian Bannister. Last year was Bannister's first season in the majors, he made the jump from the minors after a stellar performance in spring training that earned him the fifth starters spot. His first season was cut short due to repeated hamstring injuries. During the 2006 season Bannister pitched in 8 games, he compiled a record of 2-1 with a 4.26% ERA and a BB/SO ratio of 22/19. Despite his injuries many teams were very interested in Bannister, so for Omar to trade him for Burgos, a relief pitcher he must be considered a valuable commodity.

…in other words, the Mets traded from strength to fill a weakness…and i am cool with that…

…from what i can gather, the Mets, among other teams, feel the Royals rushed the 22–year-old burgos to the majors, and are sort of surprised they gave up on him so quick, noting that he has the make-up and power to be a dominant relief pitcher one day, especially since he hits 100–mph on the radar gun… source Metsblog

In two full seasons in the major leagues Burgos has appeared in 126 games, totaling 136 innings pitched, with an ERA of 4.81% and a BB/SO ratio of 68/137. Last year as the Royals closer he had 30 save opportunities and converted 18 of them. Entering this season Burgos will only be 22 y/o with two years of major league experience under his belt, in the hitters' friendly American League. Many have felt that Burgos was rushed to the majors by the small market Royals. He is considered to be a very hard thrower with a lot of control problems, which is evident by his 68 walks and 12 blown saves. His profile reminds me of Jorge Julio who responded well to Rick Peterson and company.

I contacted a Royals blog called Royals Review and asked if they would give a fans point of view on Burgos and the trade. They were kind enough to respond with the following;

Congrats to the Mets on pulling off this trade. Burgos turns 23 next season and with his ability to throw hard he can look forward to another decade of chances to succeed. In two major league season Burgos owns a Krate of 9.02 (11.45 in the minors), proof that theres something there. He struggled with walks and homers at times in KC, but thats to be expected from someone who goes from the Rookie League to the American League in essentially one year. Moreover, the Royals wasted notime in making him the closer, which may or may not have contributed to his struggles. But hey, if you can do it in Burlington Iowa, getting those last three outs at the Metrodome should be a piece of cake! Right now he's a bit of the classic reliever who might walk the bases loaded, but also strike out the side. Plus,there's a non-negligible chance that he's a true asset out of the 'pen at some point.

Mike's Mets had the following review of Burgos in their scouting report on him for 2006:

The obvious weaknesses here are the walk and homerun totals and an inability to retire left-handed batters. They were the primary culprits in Burgos blowing 12 saves in 30 chances for the Royals in 2006. Also, an inability to command his secondary pitches led to an overreliance on the fastball. Burgos threw his fastball almost 75% of the time, and used it as his first pitch to a batter an astounding 85% of the time. Burgos' ability to bring that heater at close to 100 mph didn't stop major league hitters from batting .321 against that fastball last year. If he is to develop as a pitcher, it will involve finding a consistent delivery and improving his command of all his pitches.

The Royals severely rushed Burgos, allowing him less than 300 total minor league innings with only 12 innings coming above class A. In essence, Burgos has been trying to learn on the job against major league hitters, and that's no easy task for a large pitcher (6-3, 235) with inconsistent delivery mechanics. I wonder if he would benefit from spending some time in the high minors. Unfortunately, coming after two full seasons in the majors this sort of demotion could prove counterproductive, causing a player to get down on himself. In any case, I've heard an interview with Omar where he insists that Burgos is not simply a project, but rather someone who could help right away. Perhaps the Mets will try to work him in and build his confidence in the same manner that Jorge Julio was used early last season. Barring significant struggles in the spring, I do think Burgos will start the season in the major league bullpen. At the very least I think a spot it his to lose.