Thoughts on the Ryan Church for Jeff Francoeur

I was one of the fans that hated the Lastings Milledge trade, it wasn't that I was still enamoured with Milledge, in fact; I thought it was time for him to go. But Milledge, at that time, was still somewhat of a top prospect and our bullpen was horrible, my expectation was that Milledge would garner, at least, a reliever in the package.

Instead the Mets walked away with a weak hitting catcher and a platoon partner outfielder.

Since then Ryan Church had totally won me over as a player, he was a solid defender with a good arm and a decent bat. Even if he couldn't hit lefties and he was more of a .270 hitter then the .300 splash we saw to start his Mets career, I felt he was an asset. I liked his approach to the game, he was a blue collar, come to the stadium everyday ready to play type of guy. So it's not easy for me to see him go...

I'm also a realist and for whatever reason it was obvious that Church just didn't fit into the Mets plans and if anyone from the major league team was going to be moved, it was probably Church. Maybe there is nothing to the Jerry/Church thing or the idea that Church didn't like NY, that aside, he was the one player with value on the market who the team didn't view as an untouchable part of the future core.

I've been screaming for a trade for over a month, so for me to say I dislike the trade would be a bit hypocritical. I wanted a trade, even if it was for the sake of a trade, just to shake things up and I got what I wanted. As of now, admitting that I know very little about Francoeur and am bias towards Church, I see this as a wash, since they're basically similar players.

Here are the positives I see from the deal, Francoeur is five years younger and under control for four more years. Church has spent much more time on the DL, while Francoeur has basically played everyday. The Mets have often been left handed dominant, Francoeur is a righty bat who only hit righties .232 but even that is better then Church's .167 against his own side. Francoeur went to work with Omar's close friend and hitting guru Rudy Jaramillo ( source Bleacher report), it sounds like Atlanta hitting coach Terry Pendleton took exception to this and it may have effected their relationship. I think, just as Church needed a fresh start, so did Frenchy, the management was frustrated with him and there was a lot of performance pressure being the home town kid.

The risks, for a team with offensive struggles, a part-time Church was at least hitting .280, mostly against righties while Francoeur was hitting .250 ( .303 against lefties). The Braves seem to know when to move players who have peaked, very few players go on to more success after leaving the organization, which leads you to worry that the last two years are what he is and not what he was in 2006-2007. Francoeur is a small town guy, there is that chance that he's not going to handle the big city.

Too me it looks like more of a wash; both are considered great outfielders with incredible arms, the edge may go to Francoeur in the field but at the plate, as of right now Church has the edge for the past two season. In regards to untapped potential, pre-season rankings in 2005 ( when they both came up on a regular basis) Francoeur was the Braves #4 prospect while Church was the Nats #5 ( of course the Braves farm was much stronger and Fenchy was much younger).

Overall, I like this trade for trades sake, the team needed a shake up, Francoeur didn't cost a top prospect and could become a player for the future, as well as the present. Nice Job Omar, hopefully as you hinted in the press conference there's more to come...

Good Luck Ryan Church, you played your heart out for us and I won't forget how hard you tried after the concussions...

State of the rotation at mid-season...

After last night's loss, Jerry Manuel stated that over the All-Star break the team would re-examine the starting rotation.

"I'll say this: Over the break, we'll decide what the rotation is going to be," Manuel said after the Mets lost their fifth in six games Thursday night. "We haven't decided that yet, and we'll just have to take a good look at it and see which direction we're going to go. We're not saying somebody's in and somebody's out, I'm just saying we're going to take a look at it." source NJ.com

So let's take a look at how the rotation has done in the first half:

Johan Santana, a traditionally slow starter had an incredible beginning to the season, in his first 10 starts he went 7-2 with a 1.76 ERA. He then had the worst month of his career, going 2-4 with a 6.19 ERA. His first appearance in July was a loss, but a solid start going seven innings, allowing two runs. Maybe it was a bad stretch, but it has lead to speculation that he's injured or frustrated with the team.

The best way to describe Mike Pelfrey is inconsistent, in 16 starts he is 6-4 with a 4.52 ERA. His first three starts of the year he went 2-0 with a 6.32 ERA, he then rebounded in May with a 2.93 ERA ( 2-1 record), in June his ERA once again rose to 6.39 ( 1-2 record) and this month in two starts he has a 3.38 ERA. Each start Pelf. has a stretch where he's dominant and each start he seems to have an Olliesque moment. Lets not forget that Pelfrey is a Verducci candidate but the Mets can't afford to give him a break, not only are his innings increasing but his stress load hasn't decreased Pelfrey is allowing more then a hit per inning ( 91 innings/105 hits).

Prior to missing two months with a knee injury, Oliver Perez went 1-2 in five starts with a 12.37 ERA. He has made one start since returning and while it was a win, he also walked seven.

There's no time frame for John Maine's return, Maine hasn't pitched since early June and after attempting to rehab, he has been such down indefinitely. Prior to going down, Maine went 5-4 ( 11 starts) with a 4.52 ERA.

While Pelfrey has been inconsistent, Livan Hernandez has been consistent. Livan has done the exact same thing two years in a row, basically he has about 10-13 very good starts in him before he breaks down. Livan is 5-5 with a 5.10 ERA in 17 starts and after getting shelled in two straight games it appears that he could be on his way out.

Tim Redding was given a shot at the rotation and after mixed resulted was placed in the pen. In nine starts he went 1-3 with a 6.99 ERA, only three of his starts would be considered quality. Since joining the pen, he has had two appearances, the first was solid but last night he was hit hard.

Fernando Nieve was a pleasant surprise, starting five games with a 3-2 record and a 2.73 ERA. But just like most pleasant surprises he has come back to earth, his last two starts he was pulled early while getting hit pretty hard.

So what are the teams options:

Jon Niese has been solid in AAA, He's pitched six quality starts in a row with a record of 4-1 and a 1.12 ERA, as well as being named player of the week. Niese is also their most valued trade chip that isn't considered untouchable, if he's brought up and gets pommelled he immediately loses value.

Then there's always Nelson Figueroa, Figgy made one start early this year in which he allowed three runs over six innings. In Buffalo, Figgy made 14 starts with a record of 5-4 and an ERA of 2.40. He was the only Bison named to the international league All-Star team.

Some stark numbers on the state of the Mets...

Baseball is a game of numbers, in no other sport are the numbers so preciously kept., but in any business the bottom line is results and in both categories, here are some very stark numbers...

2004- .438 Omar took over at the end of the season -4th place

2005- .512 -3rd place

2006- .599 -1st place

2007- .543 -2nd place

2008- .549 -2nd place

2009- .482 -4th place

Now a little comparison to the one of the most hated GM's in recent Mets history, Steve Phillips is more remembered for dismantling the team and making bad trades/signings between 2000-2003. Phillips had six seasons and the first two months of his seventh, while Omar is starting his fifth season.

Phillips first five years 1997-2001 his winning percentage was .553, in Omar's first five years ( not including 2004 since there were only three games left but using .482 from this year at the halfway point) his winning percentage is .537 ( of course, he still has a chance to improve that depending on the clubs second half).

Overall, Phillips had a winning pct. of .538 compared to Minaya who has a .537. I did not include 2003 where Phillips was fired in June 12th ( team started 29-35) with a winning percentage of .410 in last place, because there was plenty of time to turn the season around and he did not make the now infamous trades or have an impact on the end of the season. But if your compelled to included the 2003 .410 winning percentage, since he built the team in the off-season then his winning pct. .520.

Overall, Phillips' GMed teams finished in second place three times ( never first ) and went to the playoffs twice including the 2000 World series. Omar's teams have a first place, two second places and one playoff appearance.

The numbers speak for themselves, no ( in my book); Omar doesn't get a pass for this year due to injuries, had he approached the off-season differently this mess would not be as bad as it is now and as most know, I feel something could have been done earlier this season trade wise ( I'm actually starting to think it might be too late as it looks like everything has unraveled).

I know this, I gave my tickets to Saturday's game to a friend, who hasn't been to the new stadium and I'll watch on TV. As much money as you end up dropping in the stadium, I'm going to have a hard time attending these games, if this is the quality of product they put on the field. I have six games left on my package and I'm honestly not sure how many games I'll make for a fourth place team. I don't think that makes me any less of a fan, I'll still watch every inning, of every game but instead of going to the game and blowing additional money in the stadium, I'll stay home, watch it on TV and spend that money elsewhere. I'm not alone in this, as I talked about in an earlier post, the game I attended on Tues. only a 1/3 of my section was full and many seats I know had ticket holders on packages in them, had new faces.

I'll also tell them this, before I re-up my package for next year they're going to have to prove there doing a better job of building this team and I mean the entire 25 man roster, not one splashy front end free agent...

Roster Move: Fernando Martinez DL- Argenis Reyes activated

The Mets have placed Fernando Martinez on the disabled list. Martinez hasn't played since a pinch hitting assignment on July 3rd., prior to that he was hitting .176 and clearly looked in over his head. One thing the Mets really need to monitor is the growing list of injuries, this kid hasn't played a full season yet and as much of a can't miss prospect as we've been told he is, he's bordering on becoming labeled an injury risk ( let's just rem. though, the same could have been said of Reyes early on).

The Mets recalled Argenis Reyes, the .064 batter with average range really doesn't make sense but it probably has more to do with the team retooling over the All-Star break, then it does Reyes having anything to contribute.

More good injury news; J.J. Putz

According to Metsblog J.J. Putz is ahead of schedule, a pen of K-Rod, Putz, Wags, Feliciano, Green, Redding/Nieve and Parnell would be an incredible pen down the stretch, if we're still in it.

It appears that he is hoping to play catch after the All-Star break and is about week ahead of schedule.

It sounds like he's chomping at the bit to return...

Putz described being on the disabled list, unable to help the team as ‘miserable,’ and ‘frustrating.’ source Metsblog

Carlos Delgado ahead of schedule...

A very encouraging site was seen prior to last night's game, Carlos Delgado was on the field taking infield practice. According to reports, Delgado is ahead of schedule and could be back as soon as August 1st. As I've stated before, A-Rod struggled for about a month after returning but during that time he did provide protection in the line-up...

"Very, very encouraging. That's a part of the progression. He's right on schedule, if not ahead of schedule," Manuel said before the Mets' 5-4 victory over the Dodgers. "I'm not certain of mid-August. I'm thinking as long as there are no setbacks, and we're progressing, I'm thinking better than that." source NY Post

Update: Do the Mets owe Beltran & the rest of the core more...

Since 2007, each year the Mets have needed a player in-season and each year they fail to make a deal. Usually the mantra is that no trade made sense and that it was a sellers market. For us bolder fans it's been frustrating, after all I thought Omar was a gunslinger GM, but for many they praise the stability and are constantly bantering about not mortgaging the future.

But for the last three years, Omar hasn't mortgaged the future and still the future hasn't contributed to the present. As a non-farm follower, I know I'm constantly asking where are these players I don't want to mortgage and why are they so low in the farm system. I also rem. how much the Mets have always over valued and over hyped their prospects, most of which have turned out to be busts.

Since Omar took over Mike Pelfrey is the only drafted player who is a full time regular. I still consider the jury out on Dan Murphy, Nick Evans, Bobby Parnell and Fernando Martinez because if there weren't injuries probably all but Parnell would be in AAA, but even he's sporting a 4.64 ERA.

My issue with Omar is two-fold, the biggest is that he seems to be a horrible in-season strategist and secondly he fails to fully develop the roster beyond the center pieces. Omar has done a brilliant job in the off-season making trades but for those who say his prospects are at the lower levels because he's made so many trades, it isn't true. In all the moves Omar has made, only two prospects have become regulars and neither are All-star caliber, Carlos Gomez is hitting .250 or less and Brian Bannister is a 500 starter ( Heath Bell wasn't a prospect at the time of his deal).

With each year that passes, in which we don't mortgage the future and don't win, I think more of the core of the team. At what point, are we sacrificing the team for the future, a future, that may never come. A core group of players has a window and at some point that window closes.

I'm sure at some point during contract negotiations or trade discussions, Omar has promised the player, that he's coming to a contender with an aggressive GM who will address deficiencies to win...

I feel the worst for Carlos Beltran, the center fielder has played his heart out as a Met and has nothing to show for it. Beltran has to live with looking at strike three because he's never been given a chance at redemption. Beltran is already 33 y/o with bad knees and played hurt, I wonder how he feels about waiting for next year. He has been an All-Star 4 of 5 years, 2X silver slugger and 3X gold glover.

David Wright and Jose Reyes are still young in baseball terms but they're already 4 -5 years into their careers respectively and both have plateaued. How about surrounding them with some players who will not only help them win but also progress their baseball maturation.

You know in the Johan Santana negotiations, Omar promised Santana wouldn't be coming to a Twins type organization that only built to be a contender and not a winner. Well two years in and the Twins have had about the same record/standing as the Mets.

Frankie was probably given the same speech and while the Angels are almost a lock for the playoffs, the Mets are currently in fourth place.

This is probably the last steady team Carlos Delgado will have, after this it's one year contract time. Delgado has played hurt his entire Mets career and resurrected his Hall of Fame candidacy by carrying the team last year, I'm sure Delgado is hoping for a swan song and not a quiet exit stage left.

For more on this topic: Eric from Real Dirty Mets Blog has posted his thoughts on the subject...

I'm sick of excuses make a trade

On June 4th, 2009 for Cardinals fans, Manager Tony LaRusa stated the obvious by publicly stating that his team needed a bat...

"The No. 1 thing we can get is a guy to hit behind Albert [Pujols]," La Russa said. "That's the No. 1 thing."

Later in that same article LaRusa could be discussing our current roster and not his own...

"You don't want to disrespect the guys that are hitting around him now," La Russa said. "All I've said is that 500 or 1,000 at-bats from now, any of these guys could be that guy. They're building a career, and they've got some experience. But what you try to do is have guys not be unfairly pressured, and that's the position we're putting guys into. But they tried to make the Matt Holliday deal during the winter.

"If that guy over there is unreasonable, [then you can't do it]. ... Trying is very important. Doing something stupid is very low on the priority list. I don't want us to do something stupid." source MLB.com

To the Cardinals credit for a mid-market team that often struggles financially ( according to reports) the Cards have been one of the more aggressive teams both during the off-season and in-season with roster moves. The front office responded to LaRusa's requests by acquiring Mark DeRosa. Now many will look to DeRosa landing on the DL as a bust, but anyone can get injured ( as we all know) and look at the response to the trade initially...

"There are times when you have to react to situations that are now," Mozeliak said about an hour before the Cardinals took the field for a 6-2 loss to the Minnesota Twins. "There are other times when you can have vision and look to long-term planning. One of the things that I get beat up a lot for, and the organization does, is that we fail to make shorter-term decisions. From where I stand it’s a great message to our fans and to our major league players that we do care about today and we are focused on winning." source STLtoday.com

The NY Post has a quote of Omar in reference to trades that could be a quote in June or July in any of the last three years if you removed the short stop portion of the quote. Quite frankly, I'm tired of the rhetoric, each year the team has entered the season with a glaring hole and each year we've been told come the trade deadline we'll make a move and then the deadline comes and we get something like the Post quote...

"There's not a trade out there that's better than when we get our guys back. I'm not going to get a shortstop better than Jose Reyes," Minaya said. source NY Post

The only trades Omar has made in-season have been a result of injury, 2006 Nady was dealt due to the Sanchez injury and in 2007 they dealt for Castillo when both Valentin and Easley were down.

But in 2007 the real hole was the rotation, only two starters made 30 or more starts Maine and Glavine. Most starters only went five innings which taxed the bullpen and put undue pressure on the offense, the result was the 2007 collapse.

In 2008 the team was in desperate need of relievers, once again Omar and Co. couldn't find the right deal. Once again we fell one game shy of the playoffs with 30 blown saves.

Now it's 2009 and the team has needed a bat since early June and once again either no one is trading or nothing makes sense.

Since 2007, quite an impressive laundry list of players have been traded in-season and the Mets have not taken part in any of these deals, aside from waiver wire pick-ups. Each year we hear how hard Omar is working the phones and gives us that patent you know me if there's a deal to be made I'll make it. But we don't know Omar because instead of making any trades each year we get comments that no one is trading or none make sense.

As frugal as Omar has been in regards to in-season trades it leads me to believe one of two things, Omar is over valuing his prospects or he has been so shrewd in trades that GMs are holding him ransom when they can, in-season.

I believe Jerry Manuel was attempting to pull a LaRussa by pressuring the team into making a trade. Initially I thought his change of stance was because the team was beating itself in games they could have won but the more I see, the more I believe Manuel was basically told to shut up. Each time the team loses a game due to a lackluster offense, he looks defeated and slips in the comment "this is how were built right now".

I admit it, I don't want to give up on a season and I don't think this team will survive until the injured return, so I'm in the group that wants a trade. No, I don't want to mortgage the future but I do want them to make a move, even if it's a marginal role player for some lower minor league players. Yes, just do something, give the team and the fan base a little buzz. It might not work, but at least we go down fighting and not surrendering to the inevitable.

You want an example; Hinske and Freel there's two serviceable bench players, one from each side of the plate who went for players who will probably never make the majors and they may provide more then Murphy, A. Reyes and Martinez could. The word is may but I'd rather risk and say I tried, then to never have risked and known the outcome...

Nobody has so perfectly expressed my feelings, whether their right or wrong their mine as Mike Vaccaro of the NY Post did today in his daily whacks...

And that, as much as anything, is what Mets fans must find distasteful, if not disgraceful. I think the denizens at Citi would be more willing to accept the bad luck that has befallen their team if it appeared the Mets cared enough to DO something. But so far, they have done nothing. They have elevated Nick Evans and Fernando Martinez and whatever other bright lights stand out from their woeful farm system. They have yet to add one piece from the outside. At this point, nobody is even clamoring for a Holliday or a Halladay. Just a holiday from the inertness and the ineptness, and some kind of fresh blood into the mix.

And that is where the Wilpons have to channel whatever inner Steinbrenner they may have. They must make a statement, through their general manager, that they are in it this season for more than counting the gate receipts at Citi, for more than welcoming -- and in the process alienating -- the people who have already bought tickets for 2009, who will make the Mets' bottom line look respectable even if they simply choose not to use their tickets this year and turn the place empty in August and September. source NY Post

No help soon; Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran & John Maine

For those who don't want to make a trade but still are holding out hope for the season, because of the possible return of the injured.

Well there is no time frame for most of the injured to return, so holding out for them really seems like a false sense of hope.

In my opinion it's either make a trade and hope it helps ( which it may not) or call it a year, from what I've seen over the last two weeks this roster can't hold on indefinitely and reinforcements are no where near returning.

"If guys aren't playing, they have to play a couple of games before they come back . . . strengthen the legs, take some at-bats. What time frame that is, I just don't know," said GM Omar Minaya. "I'd like to think (Beltran and Reyes) are closer than Carlos Delgado is. When that is, I don't know that. source NY Post

Carlos Delgado progressing...

I've been tempering my hope for Carlos Delgado's return because of what I've seen from Alex Rodriguez. A-Rod is younger and much more athletic and it took him a month a playing before he got his swing back.

If Delgado gets back by August 1st and A-Rod is the model case, then we won't see an effective Delgado until Sept.

Still it does give hope that he's hitting, even if it's off a tee, the fact that he's progressing is good news...

"I feel good," Delgado said. "Everything I’m supposed to do I can do without any problems." source NJ.com